What is behind Armenian provocation?
According to political analysts, Armenia’s provocations are an attempt to respond to the strengthening of Azerbaijan's international position
Armenia, which does not give up its aggression policy, continues provocations on the front line, as well as on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. At noon on July 12, Armenians started the provocation in the direction of Tovuz district, where met with resistance from the Azerbaijani Army and were repulsed, losing a large number of troops. The statements made by the Armenian political leadership were unequivocally directed at Azerbaijan and reflected strange views. Armenia's involvement in such a provocation at a time when a ceasefire was declared around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic raises various questions. What are the motives behind such a provocation by the Armenian government?
In his statement to Kaspi, MP, Doctor of Political Sciences Elshad Mirbashir said that Armenia's next provocation on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border is due to several factors. "The first factor is that in recent years, Azerbaijan has been steadily strengthening its international position. In particular, Azerbaijan's just position in the conflict situation has been consistently supported by the most authoritative international organizations and platforms. If you remember, the Azerbaijani President initiated a special session of the UN General Assembly on May 4 at the Summit of the Contact Group of the Non-Aligned Movement. In a short time, the vast majority of UN member states unanimously supported the initiative of the President of Azerbaijan. Armenia was the only country to oppose it, and sent a special letter to the UN Secretary General, openly expressing his opposition. The point of concern for Armenia is that Azerbaijan is constantly expanding its international presence and strengthening its position. This will increase Azerbaijan's political opportunities at the negotiating table in the future. At the international level, of course, it is increasingly being voiced that the only way to resolve the conflict is through the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. The Armenian side is also seriously concerned and is trying to provide certain political opportunities in this direction. This country has no chance to provide other opportunities. From this point of view, it sees the only way out is to take steps to damage the image of Azerbaijan by committing provocations,” he noted.
According to the MP, Armenia, which provoked the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, knew for sure that it would face a strong reaction from Azerbaijan. "Azerbaijan resolutely prevented the provocation of Armenia,” he said. "Occupying Armenia was once again pushed back. Following this, the Armenian Foreign Minister immediately called the Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Stanislav Zas, accusing Azerbaijan of provocation. The Armenian Foreign Ministry also falsely informed the OSCE Minsk Group. In short, while Armenia committed provocations in all directions, it tried to convey to the world community that the provocation was allegedly committed by Azerbaijan. Of course, the image of Armenia as an aggressor has already been formed in the international public opinion, and the provocations of this country will have no political or military consequences. Once again, Armenia has shown that it is a provocative, aggressive state. To date, its participation in the negotiation process has been merely an imitation.”
Mirbashir stressed that Armenia is far from resolving the conflict by peaceful means and will not change the status quo. "Another factor that proves this is that on July 10, Armenian President Sargsyan visited the so-called regime, where he made separatist statements. He said that the solution to the Karabakh problem lies in the strengthening of "Artsakh”. If you have already determined the status of Karabakh as a "state", why are you participating in the negotiation process? The last position of the President of Armenia, the views expressed by him clearly demonstrated that they are participating in the negotiation process just for the sake of appearance. All the statements of the Prime Minister of this country Pashinyan are provocative. At the discussion of the national security strategy at the meeting of the Security Council of Armenia with the participation of Pashinyan, he made provocative statements which showed that Armenia will continue its policy of aggression. I think that all this should be a signal to the OSCE Minsk Group, which has taken on the role of mediator in the settlement of the conflict. That is, serious pressure must be put on Armenia. Otherwise, Armenia will try to maintain the status quo, commit provocations again, and blood will be shed on the border, on the front line. I think that in this case, Azerbaijan must choose the military path and make this decision in order to liberate its lands from occupation. At the same time, the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group must be abandoned,” he said.
Chairman of the Baku Club of Political Analysts Zaur Mammadov said that the violation of the ceasefire in the direction of Tovuz shows that this is a provocation planned by Armenia. "Because if we approach the issue logically, Azerbaijan could not attack Armenia, and this does not give anything to our army. But in the opposite direction, Armenia's attack is to provoke the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Azerbaijani Army. This shows that if the Azerbaijani side wanted, it could attack in the direction of Karabakh and the occupied territories. I do not rule out that all this is due to the recent changes in Azerbaijan. There is serious pressure on Baku. All this motivates the people of Azerbaijan to unite more closely and be united around the President,” he emphasized.
Mammadov noted that a meeting was held between the military attache of the Russian Embassy in Armenia, as well as a group of pilots of the Russian Air Force and Armenians. "Here we can look at the issues in several ways. First, the Soros Foundation uses Armenians to put pressure on Russia in the South Caucasus, and its main goal is to turn the region into an anti-Russian territory by deploying Western troops in the region. The second is the desire of some pro-Armenian circles in Russia to deploy the Russian army in other parts of Armenia and ensure the entry of the Collective Security Treaty Organization into the South Caucasus by creating unrest in society. Third, some forces in Russia are putting pressure on Azerbaijan. Fourth, Nikol Pashinyan is using the tense situation inside to create an image of an enemy and provoke Azerbaijan. I should also note that the Azerbaijani Army skillfully repulsed the enemy army. And unlike the Armenians, the Azerbaijani people say they are ready for battle that night. The fighting spirit of our people is at its highest point,” he said.