Date: 17 January 2019, 17:50, READ:
Nikol Pashinyan and his supporters have won the extraordinary parliamentary elections in Armenia. Although the leaders of several countries congratulated Pashinyan on the victory, but Russian President Vladimir Putin was in no hurry to congratulate Pashinyan . Experts have explained his attitude in various contexts. Thus, Putin congratulated N.Pashinyan, who was approved as the prime minister in December, 2018 only after he has been elected prime minister by the parliament on Jan 14.
So what is the reason for Russian President’s attitude ?
In his statement to "Kaspi” newspaper, political analyst Tofig Abbasov said that in recent years, there have been moments like this: "As the world elite, leaders of the leading states, take a cautious approach towards the politicians who are unconfident. As, first of all, they avoid a confused situation, on the other hand they want to be sure that these politicians are really able to cope with the situation. Pashinyan is not a confident politician. Secondly, the forces that struggled with Pashinyan are powerful enough and able to use radical methods. And it's no secret that Russia patronized them for a long time. They are the "Karabakh clan" and the groups closest to them. From this point of view, the uncertain policy towards Russia, caused the Kremlin to observe the processes patiently.” he added.
According to Abbasov, the West maintain the processes taking place in Armenia: "As, to their mind, the revolution is anti-Russian character. Therefore, they keep inspiring Pashinyan to date. However, Russia’s approach to this situation is completely different. Moscow comprehends that 50% of plan by the West has been fulfilled and today the processes in Armenia are not what Russia’s intended for Armenia at all. Pro-Russian groups have been overthrown in Armenia.” Abbasov said.
"Now, when there is deep crisis in the country, Pashinyan needs great skill and agility. Armenian authorities are trying to build at least one highway in the direction of Russia through Georgia. Therefore Yerevan is doing its best to reach an agreement with the leadership of South Ossetia, including Georgia. It is, apparently, anti-Azerbaijani plan itself. As Azerbaijan has closed its borders with Armenia so that Yerevan give up its aggressive policy and withdraw from the occupied Aazerbaijani lands. In my view, the congratulatory message by the Kremlin in fact it is understandable.”
Zaur Mamamdov, political analyst, lecturer at the Academy of Public Administration said that congratulation by Putin is symbolic: "As Putin once again made clear that Pashinyan needs to be more careful in his speeches and political steps. The relations between Pashinyan and Putin were cold from the beginning. Pashinyan has been repressing the "Karabakh clan” including Kocharyan who is Putin’s friend. In that case, friendly relations between the Russian leader and Pashinyan is out of question." he added.
Touching upon interstate relations, Mammadov pointed out that some issues here depend on Armenia's further steps. Pashinyan has little opportuinity to perform political manoeuvre: "Yerevan openly pursues pro-western policy. I do not believe that Pashinyan will lead anti-Russian policy. He, simply, will not do it. Armenian Premier, first of all, will suppress the former political elite through his western supporters and boost his position. In my view, this is Pashinyan's first target. Moreover, he will attempt to place his staff in the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh." Mammadov said.
Z. Mammadov added that there are various views towards Putin-Pashinyan relations as after the revolution in Armenia, the prime minister began to hold down the Russian companies, non-governmental organizations and political parties close to official Moscow: "These days, Pashinyan is busy with eliminating media outlets, the entire social-political sector. Everyone knows that what his men did against Gazprom-Armenia. Additionally, I should note the events against the Russian military base in Gyumri. All of these acts express anti-Russian character. Of course, Putin is aware of the anti-Russian slogans during rallies in Armenia. It is well understood that the future target of the revolution in Armenia is to remove Russia from the country. In that case, despite the symbolic congratulation, the Armenian-Russian relations will not be intense in the Pashinyan era." Political analyst told.