300 daily infection rate still too high for Azerbaijan

300 daily infection rate still too high for Azerbaijan

28 July 2020, 18:54 136
According to experts, the decline in statistics should not reassure us
After July 22, we have observed a certain decrease in the statistics of daily coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. The number of infections decreased slightly with each passing day, and the number of those who recovered exceeded the number of those infected. The figures made everyone happy for four days.
Before the same four days, after the events in the direction of Azerbaijan’s Tovuz district on the border with Armenia, thousands of people took to the streets and gathered in support of our army in Baku.
If on July 22 there were 391 infections, in the following days we saw the numbers drop to 347, 332, 321. On July 26, there was another spike and 417 new infections were reported. Is this result related to mass gatherings? What can we observe in the coming days? We also saw reassurance in people when there was a decrease in the infection rate for 4 days in a row. Do the declining numbers in the statistics give grounds for reassurance?

Infectious disease specialist Mardan Aliyev said that mass events and violations of quarantine rules should have been reflected in the infection statistics. "There is, of course, a reason for the sudden increase in the number of infections. Thousands of people gathered in support of our army. It was a matter of pride, but from a pandemic point of view, quarantine rules were violated in such an environment and led to an increase in statistics. Given the incubation period of the virus, we should have seen the effect of the mass gatherings in the current statistics. One day after the mass gatherings, people wondered why the number of infections did not increase but decreased despite many people coming together and not maintaining the social distance. We were also asked about it, and we said that it will show itself in the statistics in 4-5 days, which is around now,” he said.  
According to Aliyev, in reality, there are more infections than in the statistics. "Many people do not see a doctor if they are infected with the virus. For the first days, they think they do not have the virus, wait until there are complications, and then get tested and go to the doctor. Sometimes they even say, "my family will be taken into quarantine if I go to a clinic," and try to self medicate at home. Or some test negative even if they are infected with the virus,” he said.
Aliyev noted that, in general, it is normal to see a certain increase and decrease in the infection rates of infectious diseases. "The fact that there is a decrease for a few days does not mean that the decline will be recorded the next day. There may be an increase. There is a downward trend. There may be fluctuations, a slight increase, a slight decrease is normal,” he added.

Aliyev noted that the figures in the daily infection statistics should not reassure us. "There is a decrease, and this is due to the strict quarantine regime. If there is no quarantine, if people do not follow the rules, we will see an increase in statistics. We have a population of 10 million, not everyone has been infected. Only a few percents of our 10 million people are infected. Therefore, without quarantine, the infection will increase. In any case, we will have to wear a mask for a long time,” he said.


Sahib Mammadov, head of Citizens`Labor Rights Protection League, said that we did not witness the first or second wave of coronavirus disease, only descents, and falls. "True, we have seen a decrease in statistics for several days in a row. Then there was an increase. You know, these are relative processes. We do not have talks of a first or second wave. We had a wave once, a relative decline on April 16, and then a sharp rise. Now the number of infections is sometimes decreasing and sometimes increasing. We saw a steady decline for several days, and on July 26 there was another increase. I think everyone knows why. It should be noted that there have been mass events in recent days. Quarantine rules were violated during the burial of our martyrs, and mass gatherings in Baku. The next day the increase maybe more,” he said.

According to Mammadov, there are a significant number of people who hide the fact that they are infected with the virus. "If they hide it, it is not reflected in the statistics. There are enough people who are trying to self-medicate at home. If there are no complications, they do not consult a doctor. There are many asymptomatic people. Those who do not register and do not test are not reflected in the statistics. In reality, the number of infections is higher. That is, the situation is not good and we can not reassure ourselves. In no case does reassurance help. Because reassurance is followed by irresponsibility and disregard for quarantine rules. In May, as a result of such an approach, there was an increase,” he said.