Will Munich debate affect Karabakh talks?
According to political analysts, the Munich debate has showed that Armenia does not want to adopt a phased solution plan
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Munich. The sides exchanged views on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Later, the panel discussions on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with the participation of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan were held as part of the Munich Security Conference.
The interesting point is that the head of state put Pashinyan in a diplomatic knockout during the panel discussions. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan’s next steps are in the spotlight.
So, will the Munich debate affect the negotiation process?
In her statement to Kaspi, political analystNazakat Mammadova said that the Munich debate can be considered a great success in Azerbaijan’s diplomacy. "The war is carried out not only on the battlefield but also in the form of diplomacy. In this regard, the Munich debate is our next success on the Karabakh issue after Ashgabat and Valdai. But unfortunately, the Minsk Group, which has been commissioned by the international community to deal with the Karabakh problem, is ignoring Azerbaijan's rightful position. At the same time, the Minsk Group is silent on the ceasefire violations by the Armenian armed forces. Even during the Munich meeting, our serviceman was killed as a result of the Armenians' firing. Unfortunately, although international law and history are in favor of Azerbaijan, the Armenians continue their occupation,” she noted.
Mammadova emphasized that the region where our country is located is entering a difficult period. "2020 will be difficult for the post-Soviet space, especially for Russia. US Secretary of State Pompeo's visit to several former Soviet republics and the narrowing of the circle around Russia will definitely affect the Karabakh issue as well. Under these conditions, there is more likelihood of war than peaceful solution of the conflict. However, everything will depend on the conditions to be formed. For example, if West by means Pashinyan will make its supporter the head of the separatist regime through the fraudulent "elections", there will probably be some changes. At the same time, if Pashinyan succeeds in hiring army plans to get the Armenian army out of Russia’s control, the Kremlin may partly lose its power in the region, which can also play a role in resolving the conflict. From the relations of power and the opposition in Azerbaijan and Armenia to co-ordination between the co-chairing countries, as well as a number of regional and global processes can influence the resolution of the Karabakh issue,” the political analyst added.
According to head of the Atlas Research Center, political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu, the Munich debate has showed that the talks on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has not had real results for 25 years. "There is no change in Armenia's position either. The country's prime minister Pashinyan still made pointless and illogical remarks. He was talking about history, the "independence" of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev answered to all this, and he proved by historical facts that Pashinyan's claims were unfounded,” he said.
"The Munich debate has once again shown that there will be no progress in future negotiations since the positions are diametrically different,” noted Shahinoglu. "This does not have a positive impact on the talks. It is even possible that the situation on the frontline will be tense and provocations will continue. During the meeting in Munich, Armenians broke the ceasefire and killed the Azerbaijani soldier. This also shows that the most important for the Armenians is to extend the status quo. That is Pashinyan’s goal. Nevertheless, I think the debate was important. For the first time, there was a debate among the leaders. We had no idea of the closed negotiations before, we had only the illusions. But after seeing this debate, we understand that Armenia does not want to adopt a phased solution plan. I think we should probably force them to do so.”