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New stage starts in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict's settlement

New stage starts in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict's settlement
Elman Nesirov: Azerbaijan is the dominant side in the new stage

Peaceful settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has become urgent after the four day war that Azerbaijani Army  inflicted a crushing blow to the enemy. The OSCE Minsk group co-chairs who had been considering their duties finish with visiting to Baku and Yerevan and  holding  meetings urge settlement of the conflict as soon as possible. Specially Russia demonstrates activity in this issue. During the recent incidents occured on frontline Russian President Vladimir Putin  had a telephone conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Afterwards visits of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to our country and holding talks due to settlement of the conflict allow us to think in this way. These days, Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov is expected to visit to the both countries  Azerbaijan and Armenia and submit concrete proposals to the sides. Over this issue Secretary of New Azerbaiajn Party’s International relations commission, political analyst, MP Elman Nesirov has answered questions of "Kaspi” . 

-Azerbaijani President’s Aide on public-political issues Ali Hasanov said  in his interview that in recent days intensive stage of the negotiations over settelement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will kick off.  May Russian officials’ Baku visits and statements made by them and processes observed within first days of April  be considered as a preliminary stage of expected intensity? 
-In the interview of Mr Ali Hasanov the point of intensity will be observed due to resolution of the conflict was highlighted. The intensity has already observed. It is not accidental. After the incident occured on contact line between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the  first days of April the new stage has been kicked off in settlement of the conflict. Azerbaijan is the dominant side in the new stage and the world sees this. 
One of the most important factors contributing to our advantage is Azerbaijani Army’s potential and power that has revealed. Moreover, except Armenia, majority of the countries, as well as, international organizations have defended Azerbaijan’s position and supported its territorial integrity. Besides, "powerful Armenian army” "strong Armenian patriotism”  contrived by Armenia have vanished. The co-chairs have comprehended this fact and that is why they began to show activity in settlement of the conflict. As the co-chair of the OSCE Minsk group Russia is more active. President of Russia Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Azerbaijani Presdient Ilham Aliyev,  Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Russian Premier visited Azerbaijan. These days Lavrov is expected to visit Azerbaijan  and Armenia again. Opinions about possible poroposals which Lavrov may offer are discussed in Russian and Armenian media. The poroposal is about liberation of regions around Nagorno-Karabakh. After that  deployment of peacekeeping forces in the area is actual. Realization of determination of  Nagorno-Karabakh’s status will be issued at the second stage.  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has determined position on this issue.  He severally stated that creation of second Armenian state in the teritory of Azerbaijan is unacceptable. It will never be allowed. 
Currently, the OSCE Minsk group is going to hold meeting at the level of Foreign Ministers. The meeting is expected to be held by initiative of Kremlin in one of cities of Russia. Afterwards by initiative of official Moscow high level meeting of the Presdients is expected to be held in Russia. So, I think, intensity in negotiation process significantly differs from before ones. As, if negotiations ends fruitlessly, the war may start again. The OSCE Minsk Group  has understood this after the latest escalation on frontline. They got known that Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not a frozen conflict. A war can begin anytime between the sides. 

-What was Armenian community’s reaction to these processes? Do you beleive that official or non-official persons will agree with Armenia’s  compromise ? 
- A tendension uses to be in Armenian media that Azerbaijan has  sufficiently strengthened  with help of revenues from oil and gas, so Armenia has to compromise before increasing of difference between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This is called the ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan's approach too. According to Armenian experts, Armenian community lives through the great depression, the process of migration from country has been accelerated, public opinion mostly support peace. As Armenian community clearly understand a war will cause to big losts. Armenian opposition media writes that Armenian official bodies hide realities from the nation. 322 Armenian servicemen were killed, more than 500 Armenian militaries wounded in the four days war. They even stated that the soldiers claimed lost were killed and the government buried them secretly over fear that complaints can increase. However all realities can be seen . 
 
 
-You have noted that Russia the co–chair state of the OSCE Minsk group demonstrates more activity in settlement of the conflict, while other co-chair states mostly look to be onlookers. What does it mean ? 
-The settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the only issue that there is no disagreement between Russia and the West. As there is very different position between Russia and the West, (specially US and France) about other  international processes ( Syria, Libya and so on.) However the co-chairs speak with one voice on Nagorno-karabakh conflict. Even some Western experts beleive that the conflict is good opportunity to reconcile Russia and the western countries.  The sides are able to show common position in this issue. Another reason of passive attitude of the other two co-chairs to the conflict is official Paris and Washington’s analysis. They come to conclusion that Russia is the state with ability to impact strongly to Armenia a part of the conflict. Russia is able to affect Armenia. Moreover, looking at US and Russia’s security concepts we can find answer to our questions. It has been stressed in the latest security concept of US that the Middle East region takes more significant position in strategic interests of US. Besides, it was mentionedin Russia's security concept that CIS area is at the first place in strategic interests of Russia. Russia’s activity  in Middle East was met negatively, exactly, the West’s activity in CIS area irritates Russia. Currently, the West considers these factors and only observes Russia’s activity.
-Deployment of peacekeeping forces in the conflict area is actual. How will be solved the issue? Will Azerbaijan agree to deployment of a military base of other country in its area?  
 
-Due to this issue President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has had principial position. It must not be monopoly position of any country in determining of peacekeeping forces. The most contentious issue at the moment is related to that. When they tell peacekeeping forces who do they consider to be?  If those forces to be Turkey, then Armenia will protest against it. If Russia to be peacekeeping forces then Azerbaijan will protest against it. In that case, status of peacekeeping forces must be representative of the different states. Any country should not act as monopolist force here. The best option is that peacekeeping forces must be established on a parity basis. After that, they may regulate their  activities under the UN mandate.  I recall that monopolist position is unacceptable in this issue. Otherwise, it will mean temporary freezing of the problem and outbreak of the conflict will be possible at any time. Therefore, this is a crucial issue in the negotiations.

Rufik İsmayilov






























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