IMF data is no coincidence

IMF data is no coincidence

Economy
17 October 2019, 13:47 71
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the Global Economic Outlook report of October 2019 to the general public. The report also includes forecasts for economic growth in Azerbaijan, Trend reports. According to the IMF experts, economic growth will be 2.7% in Azerbaijan this year and 2.1% in 2020.
 
According to the report, GDP growth in our country last year was about 1%, but by 2024 it will rise to 2.4%. With regard to consumer prices, the IMF forecasts inflation at 2.8% in Azerbaijan this year, and 3 % in 2020 and 2024. Last year, this figure was 2.3%. The IMF also disclosed its forecasts for current account balance and unemployment. Thus, the unemployment rate in 2018-2020 has remained unchanged at 5%. The current account balance was 12.9% in 2018 and will be 9.7% this year, 10% in 2020, and 7.6% in 2024.
 
Economist, MP Azer Badamov said that economic growth has been ongoing at an increasing pace over the past few years. "The results of the first three quarters of 2019 confirm this. Economic growth was higher than the projected forecasts. This growth can be considered as an indicator of the economic policy pursued in the country. It is very important for us to develop our economy, and protect it against possible risks. To this end, economic reforms are continuously underway. Work is carried out in various industries to eliminate Azerbaijan's dependence on the oil industry. There is an increase in the export of non-oil products. Non-oil products play a special role in the development of the country's export potential. All this indicates the overall economic growth and increased competitiveness. Reports released by institutions, such as the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund prove this,” he said.
 
According to economist Parviz Heydarov, the figures released in the reports of international financial institutions and rating agencies on Azerbaijan's economic development are improving. "In 2015-2016, there was a sharp shock due to foreign economic factors. However, macroeconomic stability has been strengthening in recent years. Higher rates are being achieved at higher macroeconomic stability and development dynamics. In this sense, the figures released by the IMF are not coincidental. In 2018, there was economic growth in GDP production. At the beginning of 2019, it was projected that this increase will continue throughout the year. There are less than two months to the year-end. If we look at the processes taking place in the country's economy, we will see that there will be a significant increase in GDP by the end of 2019. As you know, Azerbaijan will export its gas to Turkey and Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor by 2020. Thus, a new era will begin in our country. This project is of great importance to us in terms of exporting our energy resources to foreign markets. This is because TANAP will bring significant inflows of currency to the country, which in turn will increase GDP. There is also a positive trend in the import and export operations of non-oil industry products. If the stability continues, the rates will increase in the coming years. It is possible to predict that even bigger numbers will be recorded in the Azerbaijani economy next year. Of course, these trends will be true if nothing extraordinary happens in the world economy and no changes occur in oil prices. Unfortunately, the bulk of our foreign exchange earnings come from the export of our energy resources. Unless there are exceptional negative developments in the global economic growth rates, we can further increase our performance in the next few years,” he noted.
 
Doctor of Economic Sciences Fikret Yusifov said that there is no significant deviation between the IMF's forecasts and the Azerbaijani government's forecasts. "I believe that in the coming years, economic growth is likely to occur. So much of this growth stems from the present reality. As for inflation, going forward a few years, and giving a decisive comment on this indicator, in my opinion, is a very responsible issue. This is not to say that IMF experts do not truly understand this responsibility. They simply make estimates of the current situation in the world through the prism of economic and financial processes and make many "optimistic" forecasts about inflation. The reality of these forecasts regarding oil countries is under serious doubt. Let's not forget that none of the international financial institutions were able to predict the national currency’s double devaluation in 2015. That is why everything regarding inflation in the coming years will still depend on oil prices. In the near future, if the US administration succeeds in implementing its strategy to reduce oil prices, it will be difficult to predict the level of inflation in oil countries.
 
Shabnam Mehdizade